Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
