A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
